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Social Cost Comparison Among Fuel Cell Vehicle Alternatives (cont.)


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Table-3: Fuel Costs at the Pump (1998 US$)

FUELS

Hydrogen

Methanol

Gasoline

($/gal-eq)

Centr. Plant

Decentr. Plants

Currently

Future a

  

DTI

-

0.98

0.94

1.27

0.80 to 1.20

Ogden

1.60 to 5.20

1.70

-

1.25

1.05

Lipman b

-

1.05/1.32

1.37/1.90

1.37/1.90

-

Sigworth

3.30

-

-

2.08

1.46

Kalhammer

> 3.00

-

-

-

-

Assumed c

3.00 to 1.70

1.00

1.50 to 1.20

1.20 to 1.40
  1. After worldwide methanol demand increases over 5 x 106 metric tons/year.
  2. High volume production.
  3. See comments in the text.

This study assumes the initial cost of reformulated gasoline at $1.20 per gallon, and the incremental cost of 1% a year until a constant cost of $1.40 per gallon in the future. The underlying assumption is that oil prices will remain constant due to increase in supply with the introduction of alternative fuels. For methanol from natural gas (NG), it assumes the cost of $1.00 per gal-geq until a fleet of 1.5 million methanol vehicles is achieved by 2007, and $1.50 per gal-geq for the following 10 years due to the necessity to build new plants. By 2017, a decremental cost of 2 % per year is applied until the cost reaches $1.20 per gal-geq. For hydrogen from NG, the initial cost of $3.00 per gal-geq was assumed, with the decremental cost of 2 % per year until it reaches $1.70 per gal-geq. Also, it is assumed that solar hydrogen will be introduced by 2020, at a cost of 2.20 per gal-geq, and will improve 2 % per year until $1.70 per gal-geq. No discount rate was applied.

EMISSIONS

The transportation system is associated with local air quality in two ways. First, tailpipe and evaporative emissions from vehicle use produce air pollution in the area. Table-4 summarizes these so-called vehicular criteria emissions. Tires and break emissions also produce air pollution. While emissions from tires and braking were not considered for this study, they can differ from conventional vehicle technology due to the use of regenerative breaking and reduced vehicle weight.

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