MI: Social Cost Comparison Among Fuel Cell Vehicle Alternatives

Social Cost Comparison Among Fuel Cell Vehicle Alternatives (cont.)

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VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY:

Existing studies foresee quite different fuel economies for future vehicle technologies. table-2 shows the numbers used as the basis for this study. It is assumed the IMFCV will start with 50 mpg_geq, and will go up to 70 mpg_geq. Also, 65 mpg_geq is assumed for DMFCV after 2020. Hydrogen-FCV starts with a fuel economy of 65 mpg_geq, and improves to 85 mpg_geq. For Gasoline-FCV, it is assumed a constant 60 mpg_geq due to its late launching. For Hybrid ICE/EV, it is assumed to be launched with a performance of 45 mpg, and will improve to 65 mpg.

Table 2: Fuel Cell Vehicle Fuel Efficiency-Assumptions of Various Studies

Fuel effic.	Gasoline				Methanol		Hydrogen
(mile/gal-eq)	ICV	Tech-1	Hybr.	FCV	IMFCV	DMFCV	FCV
DTI ^a	30	-	-	29/42	44/49	-	66
Ogden ^b	-	-	-	71	69	-	106
Sigworth	35	-	^-	53	60	-	70
Acurex	23	27	-	-	-	-	55
Greet 1.5a	22.4	24	45.6	48	55.2	-	72
Mark ^c	-	35/38	-	-	59/74	-	69/87
Moore ^d	-	-	-	39	57	47	93
Assumed	30	35	45/65	60	50/70	65	65/85

DTI (1998) assumes 42.1 mpg for the best case of Gasoline-FCV and 29.2 mpg for the most probable case. For the Indirect Methanol-FCV it assumes the efficiency of 48.6 mpg_geq (best case) and 43.5 mpg_geq (probable case).
Ogden et al. (1998).
Mark et al (1994) assume improvements to the vehicle fuel economy over time. For ICV in 2010, their number is 34.6 mpg, and improvements are very slow (38 mpg in 2030). For HFCV they use 69.2 mpg_geq in 2010, and 86.5 mpg_geq in 2020. Also, for Indirect Methanol-FCV the efficiency is assumed to be 15 % below the HFCV efficiency.
Moore et al (1998) present the relative fuel cell system efficiency of different technologies compared with direct hydrogen fuel cell. Direct Methanol-FC has a relative efficiency of 50 %, 61 % is attributed for Indirect Methanol-FC, and 42 % for Reformulated Gasoline-FC. To be comparable, this study included the efficiency of HFCV according to ITS (1999).

FUEL COST:

In general, fuel costs are calculated based on projected feedstock costs, conversion costs, transportation storage and distribution costs, taxes and so on. Mark et al (1994) assumes a constant difference between gasoline, methanol and hydrogen costs. They work with the concept of "established industries," and the costs increase equally due to the oil price increment assumed. Their costs (1998 $) in 2010 are around $1.40 per gallon for Reformulated Gasoline, $1.50 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (gal-g_eq) for Methanol and $2.18 per gal-g_eq for Hydrogen. Methanol and Hydrogen fuels are assumed to be produced from natural gas.

Other numbers present in the current literature are shown on the Table-3

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