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Social Cost Comparison Among Fuel Cell Vehicle Alternatives (cont.)
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VEHICLE FLEET:
The annual mileage for each vehicle is assumed to be 12,000 miles as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy (Transportation Energy Data Book, 1999). The fleet calculation is based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) each year, on the lifetime of each technology, and on sales based on the market share of each scenario presented above.
Future VMT is an extrapolation of the past numbers, and the assumption that VMT will reduce its growth rate in the future to coincide with the rate of population growth. Past occurrences that elevated annual VMT growth, such as the female VMT growth, will stabilize (See Figure-4). The VMT for past years is based on figures from the U.S. Department of Transportation (1997), and projections of U.S. resident population are from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1996).
VEHICLE LIFE:
Vehicle lifetime is based on the conventional ICV average lifetime presented by Miaou (1995). Differences in complexity and moving parts were taken into account to assume the lifetime for alternative technologies. The lifetime assumption is 14 years for the conventional and new technology of ICV (See Figure-5). Also, 14 years is assumed for Gasoline-FCV and Indirect-Methanol-FCV. For the hybrid EV/ICV, a lifetime of 15 years was assumed, and for the Hydrogen-FCV and Direct-Methanol-FCV, 16 years was assumed.
Figure 4: VMT Growth Projection
Figure 5: ICV Lifetime Projection
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