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Social Cost Comparison Among Fuel Cell Vehicle Alternatives (cont.)
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This study examines the following aspects of private sector monetary costs to adopting fuel cell vehicles:
- Annualized cost of the fleet: Initial costs of vehicle technologies and different lifetimes expected for each.
- Maintenance costs: Takes into account that less complex technologies are easier and cheaper to maintain.
- Fuel costs: Different vehicle technologies have different fuel efficiencies. The use of different fuels has widely varying impacts on the social cost calculation.
Given the scope of this study, only air pollution damages are considered. Other non-monetary external costs, monetary externalities, monetary costs from the public sector, and non-monetary personal costs were not included, as discussed below:
- Air pollution damages: Different pollutant emissions may cause different effects on human health, crops, materials and visibility. This study assesses the cost of human health damage related to criteria pollutants in urban areas. Due to the huge uncertainty over global warming damage, CO2 emissions are presented in this study, but are not included in the calculation.
- Other emission damages: Water, land and noise pollution are not considered despite marked differences between the technologies. As an example of noise pollution, think of the audible difference between the sound produced from an electrical motor and an internal combustion engine.
- Variations related to petroleum use: Military expenditures on the Persian-Gulf, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, interrelationships with other sectors, etc., are not considered in this study.
- Supervision: Government expenditures for the regulatory control and enforcement of air emissions are not considered in this study.
- Personal time: This study does not consider the personal time spent on vehicle maintenance due to reduced maintenance requirements of some technologies, and also the personal time spent on refueling that can vary from a few seconds to many minutes.
MARKET PENETRATION SCENARIOS:
Since the adoption of a new vehicle technology may take some time to penetrate the total U.S. fleet, the time frame considered for this study is 2003 to 2050. Three scenarios were created to compare the alternatives. Scenario 1 deals with existing gasoline fuel technology and its evolution. The comparison is based on a moving target that will improve its performance with fuel-correlated technology introduction.
Scenario 2 deals with the use of hydrogen fuel. This scenario accounts for competition with conventional technology improvement in such a way that the emissions generated are in accordance with a fleet mixing the technologies year-by-year. In order to have a real zero emission transportation system (solar hydrogen plus HFCV) accounted for in the analysis, a very aggressive market share introduction was established for the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV). It is useful to point out that the most optimistic assumption in the literature accounts for 50 % FCV market penetration in 2030 (Mark et al, 1994). To eliminate some bias, the introduction of other technologies adopted the same aggressive penetration rate.
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